Foresight Funnies: Bob Presents 13 (**wink**) Foresight Rules

#2 Never trust a straight line forecast

This rule means that you should not assume that the future will follow a linear and predictable pattern based on the past or present data. The future is often complex, uncertain, and influenced by many factors that can change the course of events in unexpected ways.

#3 If you don’t know where you’re going, any road will take you there

Have a clear vision and direction for your future, or end up wandering aimlessly and missing out on opportunities or risks. You should also be flexible and adaptable to changing circumstances, but not lose sight of your goals and values.

#4 Assume all scenarios are dead wrong, especially your own

Don't rely too much on any single scenario or prediction of the future, as they are all based on assumptions and uncertainties that can be proven wrong by reality. Be aware of your own biases and preferences that can cloud your judgment and blind you to alternative perspectives or outcomes.

#5 You can’t see the future with your eyes on the present

This rule means that you should not limit your imagination and creativity by only focusing on the day-to-day pressures. You should also look beyond the obvious and conventional, and consider the potential impacts of emerging technologies, social changes, environmental issues, and other factors that can shape the future in surprising ways.

#6 If you don’t know what a trend does, include it!

Please don't ignore or dismiss any trend or signal that you do not fully understand or appreciate, as it may have significant implications for the future that you are not aware of. Instead be curious and open-minded to learn more about the trends and their drivers, effects, and interactions with other trends.

#7 Disruption looks just like an opportunity

Be proactive and agile to seize the opportunities that disruption offers, and adapt to the changing environment and customer needs.

#8 Optimism and probability don’t mix

Never confuse optimism with realism, as they are not the same thing. Optimism is a positive attitude and expectation of the future, while realism is a rational assessment of the likelihood and consequences of different events. You should be optimistic about your vision and goals, but realistic about the challenges and uncertainties that you may face along the way.

#9 Everything happens for a reason. Or not.

Luck is a factor. Don't assume that there is always a clear cause and effect relationship between everything that happens in the world. Sometimes things happen randomly or coincidentally, without any underlying logic or purpose. You should also be careful not to fall into the trap of hindsight bias, which is the tendency to see events as more predictable or inevitable after they have occurred.

#10 There’s two types of futurists. Those that can extrapolate from partial unknowns,

There are different levels of skill and competence among futurists, depending on their ability to deal with uncertainty and complexity. Some futurists can use various methods and tools to analyze data, identify patterns, generate insights, and create scenarios from incomplete or ambiguous information. Others may lack these skills or rely on intuition or guesswork instead.

#11 When you think you’re done horizon scanning, wild things will happen

The world is constantly changing and evolving, and there is always something new or unexpected that can emerge or happen at any time.

#12 Dynamism is about the change not the end-point.

This rule means that you should not focus only on the end result or outcome of a change process, but also on the process itself and how it unfolds over time. You should also be aware of the different types of change (such as incremental, radical, disruptive, transformative) and how they differ in terms of speed, scale, scope, impact, and response.

#13 Consensus to foresight is like holy water to the devil

This rule means that you should not seek or expect consensus or agreement when doing foresight work, as it can limit your creativity and diversity of views. Foresight is not about finding the right answer or solution to a problem, but about exploring multiple possibilities and perspectives that can challenge your assumptions and expand your thinking.

I hope you enjoyed reading the 13 |**wink**|rules! They are not meant to be definitive or exhaustive, but rather to stimulate your thinking and inspire your action.

The most important thing is to keep an open mind and a curious spirit, and to always challenge yourself to explore the future in new and different ways.

Remember, the future is not fixed or predetermined; it is shaped by what we do today!

And Bob's asking (not me of course): please share your own foresighted rules of thumb in the comments!