​​​​Oh. My. Foresight!

The year was 1992. The mainframe computer market was being disrupted by the personal computer. Big mainframe manufacturers, like IBM, were in dire need of new strategy.

New CEO Louis Gerstner jr was brought in from outside. When asked for his vision, he said: "The last thing IBM needs is a vision". Slashed prices on the core product and began to put his efforts into increasing decision-making speed, and thus the ability to adapt to change.

Did it work?

Judging by stock price, yes. It went up and up and up (until 1999).

When consultants talk about agility and resilience, they are actually referring to Gerstner's approach. No dot(s) on the horizon, but a strong sense of what's going on outside and work with that. It took a complete overhaul of IBM's corporate culture.

Gerstner wrote a book about it called: Who Says Elephants Can't Dance?"

An insightful story of a leader who dared to take a contrary stance and first-hand reflections on how that went.

I think it's a great read despite its age. Considering the disruption we're facing now, with artificial intelligence, smart robotics, advanced materials, and the likes, we can use all the historic examples we can get.

For more on the book, just Google: elephants cant dance abstract

#bookrecommendation #businessbook #managementbook #entrepreneur #ceo #manager #strategy #businessstrategist #read #futuristbarbara #businessbook #business #inspirational #inspiration #strategic #businessstrategist #risks #engagement #consulting #businessman #amreading #future #success #theentrepreneurgameplan #growyourbiz #disruptive #ceos #achievements #entrepreneurship #IBM
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Can AI predict disasters?

AI breaking news firm Dataminr sent a warning about a possible attack on the U.S. Capitol a day before the Jan. 6 riot, but security forces didn't view it as a credible threat, according to CNN.

Dataminr uses AI algorithms to comb the internet and find public posts that could be of interest to its customers, which include law enforcement, Fortune 500 companies, and newsrooms.

#predict #unpredictable #predictiveanalysis #predictingthefuture #prediction #foresight #predictthefuture #predictable #prediction #disruption #disaster #AI #futuristbarbara

It had also predicted the pandemic on December 31, 2019. Almost a month before the WHO declared its warning.
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Just to enjoy 🙂 ...

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The Sacramento Police Department is using virtual reality training to help officers prepare for high-risk encounters. Its virtual reality simulations are based on actual police shootings, including high-profile killings of Black Americans.

During the training, officers wear a headset and sensors, which can track the movement of their arms and weaponry.
The VR re-enactments induce a stronger physical reaction than in the classroom, which can help younger officers learn how to react more quickly. It also trains officers how to respond before and after a call.

"It can trick the brain very quickly into putting you physiologically in that environment and helping with that stress inoculation that officers need in order to make good decisions in high-stress situations" – SPD Lt. Zach Bales.

The agency can create VR simulations based on real-world police incidents nearly instantaneously, authoring a scenario in a day and training officers on it the next day.

The agency began incorporating VR and more technology into training after two officers fatally shot Stephon Clark, a 22-year-old Black man, in Sacramento in 2018.

This story first appeared in Inside XR. You can read the original story there.

#futurists #newnormal #futureofbusiness #futureofwork #futureofjobs #robots #internetofthings #iot #digitalization # #digitaltransformation #augmentedreality #weaksignal #blackswan #Futurist #thefuture #oddfuture #brightfuture #thefutureisnow #futuristic #scenario #betterfuture #thefutureisbright #futuretech #tech #scifi #futurism #cyber #inspiration #visionary #futuristbarbara
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Change —such a small word with so much impact on leadership.

When you think about it, you realize that change is about a system instead of a single development.

**Change is systemic**
Because the development itself is a change in the fabric of society, which influences the workings of your markets, and thus the effectiveness of your organization and you as one of its leaders.

Change is perpetual because when one development is "finished," its effects are still there (lagging). That creates a vacuum, to be filled with temporary measures, another change. Meanwhile, new developments are emerging, setting off a new cycle.

**Change is about the distance within a system**
People look at leaders as the ones to set the course, keep the organization safe. But leaders can only control their own views. We can influence co-workers and the procedures in the organization to a degree only. Making waves in the market is even more difficult, let alone influence public opinion.

- The influence we think we have evaporates as the distance between us and the actual development grows. Think other regions, other industries, other sectors of a customer's life.

- Simultaneously, your sense of pressures elsewhere in the environment gets dulled as the distance grows.

And: The more distant the disruption, the harder it is to sense, the more it can surprise your organization in a bad way, the less you can influence the market, and the less time you have to let the organization adapt.

**Change dimensions (system & distance) set you up to fail**
The distance effects mean that you think that the changes aren't that bad and your organization's ability to deal with them is up to par.

**How to fix this?**
Search for extra contextual information that helps you evaluate the development of changes:

- How fast does it develop?
- Does it spill over already to other customer life sectors, industries, markets? When will it reach your organization?
- How severe will it impact you? A product? A process? A business unit? Your core?

Then match the frequency of search and sense-making with the speed and scope of change.

#futuristbarbara

So now you know why change is so hard and how to fix it!
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This strange creation is by artist Mario Klingemann (@quasimondo). He called it Memories of Passersby I.

It is a machine installation an AI creating portraits non-stop.

Each portrait is unique, and is created in real time as the machine interprets its own output.

The AI was trained with thousands of 17th to 19th century portraits.

Using components of a face, the machine generate new portraits.

Occasionally it struggles during the generation of portraits. The struggle is recognizable in the weirdness of the faces. It brings new perspectives on the face... It's like seeing an AI's imagination from the inside of its brain.

Klingemann's works have been shown at the Ars Electronica Festival, the Museum of Modern Art in New York, the Metropolitan Museum of Art, London’s Photographers Gallery, and the Centre Georges Pompidou.

#artificialintelligence # #creativity #CreativityFound #creativityatitsbest #creativitymatters #creativityiskey #CreativityIsmyWeapon #creativityrocks #robot #robotics #robots #robotic #robotica #DeepLearning #deeplearningmachine #neuralnetwork #NeuralNetworks #NeuralNetworkProcessor #klingemann #marioklingemann #futuristbarbara

(video from Sotheby's: http://ow.ly/hCX150EIggc)
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Finland's "Elements of AI" course is now available in many languages in 21 EU countries. More than 240,000 have now enrolled in the free online course, which seeks to educate 1% of Europeans on the basics of AI.

https://twitter.com/TEM_uutiset/status/1389098762715516928
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Are you one of the managers looking at big tech CEOs for predictions of tech and its effects on business?Think again.

The same CEOs have been known to be very wrong. There's almost human, like us 😉

Take the birth of the iPhone in 2007. Here's what the big wigs of Apple competitors said:

**Palm CEO Ed Colligan:**
“We’ve learned and struggled for a few years here figuring out how to make a decent phone … PC guys are not going to just figure this out.. They’re not going to just walk in.”

**Nokia Chief Strategy Officer Anssi Vanjoki:**
“Even with the Mac, Apple attracted a lot of attention at first, but they have remained a niche manufacturer. That will be their role in mobile phones as well.”

**Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer:**
“There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.”

**RIM (Blackberry) co-CEO, Jim Balsillie:**
“It’s kind of one more entrant into an already very busy space with lots of choice for consumers … But in terms of a sort of a sea-change for BlackBerry, I would think that’s overstating it.”

Boy, were they wrong. They totally ignored Job's change of the business model: to have consumers pay for their phone as a component of their subscription. That brought the iPhone within reach of the masses. The iPhone helped them to satisfy old emotional needs like self-expression in new ways.

Likewise, present-day emerging tech is about more than replacing the old.

Next time you're evaluating emerging tech:

1. Think about how tech can help new customer groups to fill ancient needs like belonging, safety, and self-actualization in faster, easier, cheaper, or personalized ways.

2. Then imagine how that would impact your customer's life in general. How it affects the customer journey. And finally, how your organization can profit from that.

#businessadvice #businesstips #businessowner #businessintelligence #entrepreneurship #entrepreneur #businessstrategy #strategy #businessdevelopment #businessinspiration #businessfuture #businessstrategy #businesstransformation #businessownership #newnormal #businesstransformation #businessplanning #businessgrowthtips #growyourbusiness #growyourbusiness #entrepreneurs #futuristbarbara
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*How to view emerging tech and robot prototypes*

In Singapore, two robots, both named "Camello", have served 700 households in one-year trial. They are equipped with 3D sensors, a camera and two compartments each able to carry up to 20 kg of food or parcels ordered online.

Users can book delivery slots for their milk and eggs, and an app notifies them when the robot is about to reach a pick-up point - usually the lobby of an apartment building.

They use ultraviolet light to disinfect themselves after every trip, said OTSAW Digital's chief executive, Ling TingMing.

"Especially during this pandemic period, everybody is looking at contactless, humanless," he told Reuters.

I can picture Camello here, traveling the countryside, between the farmers and their giant tractors 😜

With the amount of daily deliveries in my area, I think we will see a Camello traffic jam!

I'm not convinced that Camello is the answer to the delivery bubble.

But I can see all kinds of other applications like hospital logistics.

It's how emerging tech develops. The purpose of the inventor usually differs significantly from latent needs in the markets.

That's why I view these press releases with different eyes:
- As a symptom of an underlying change, its current speed, direction, or scope.
- As an indicator of the likelihood of that underlying change: if emerging tech is cheap to make with standard components, an important hurdle for dispersion has been taken, and speed/scope can dramatically increase.

#innovation #outsidethebox #inspiration #explorative #differentperspective #thinkdifferent #thoughtprovoking #wayofthinking #wisewords #thinker #thinkaboutit #reflect #reflecting #reflections #innovationforabetterlife #innovationhub #design #innovationlab #innovations #designinnovation #business #creativity #creativeprocess #creativeminds #openmind #outofthebox #outoftheboxideas #outoftheboxthinker #outoftheboxthinking #futuristbarbara
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A Dog, to whom the butcher had thrown a bone, was hurrying home with his prize as fast as he could go. As he crossed a narrow footbridge, he happened to look down and saw himself reflected in the quiet water as if in a mirror. But the greedy Dog thought he saw a real Dog carrying a bone much bigger than his own.

If he had stopped to think he would have known better. But instead of thinking, he dropped his bone and sprang at the Dog in the river, only to find himself swimming for dear life to reach the shore. At last he managed to scramble out, and as he stood sadly thinking about the good bone he had lost, he realized what a stupid Dog he had been.

Aesop's warning to be taken in by appearances and to investigate what you really see (Aesop was a Greek slave, living between 620 and 564 BC).

I think its relevance is as strong as ever. Perhaps I should carve out some time to reflect on the stream of incoming information... see if I can see new patterns, dependencies. Time to channel my inner Sherlock again 🙂

#differentperspective #thinkdifferent #cognitive #aesop #thoughtprovoking #patience #wisdom #mindsetmatters #positivethought #wayofthinking #wisewords #thinker #thinkaboutit #reflect #reflecting #reflections #futuristbarbara
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Right before the pandemic, we ignored some pretty hefty signals. Almost all of us.

We already knew about the danger of new animal-human progressing viruses (SARS epidemic in 2003). But that stayed in Asia and got contained pretty quick, so what's the worry?

Scientists acting upon that danger, did studies on contagion, but their 2011 paper was too dangerous to get published, peers concluded.

Then Bill Gates held his Ted Talk in 2015, titled: "The Next Outbreak. We're not ready". He got duly ignored. Possibly a kneejerk response like "If it's not called tech, then don't talk about it, Bill."

Less than a year later, the World Health Organization had to go to high alert due to the transmission of the Zika Virus in Latin America. In its wake, the WHO informed anyone who wanted to listen that the global health systems would not be able to handle an epidemic. But we got other priorities. Which I can't even remember.

Then in 2019, Wuhan officially kept quiet. No words for that.

But on December 30, 2019, we got warned by an AI system analyzing social media and it said: "Another SARS is spreading quietly in Hankou Wuhan". And we didn't believe it, because it was just an AI that was likely to be wrong.

On January 10, 2020, the WHO announced its first warning, and on January 30 issued a red alert. Finally, on March 11, it gave out the pandemic warning.

And then our governments sprang into debating adequate measures. We're still in that situation, a year later.

I tell this story to show you the fate of information that does not fit our frame of reference. We just do not label it as urgent or relevant. It remains outside the focus or gets discarded entirely.

So free up some time and take a close look at your definition of relevancy. Are you sure that you're not ignoring/discarding a serious threat?

#error #decision #decisions #decisionmaking #decisiontime #decisionsdecisions #strategy #wisdom #decisions #decide #managementteam #cognition #smebusiness #smestrategy #businesstips #DecisionMakingProcess #decisionmakers #decisionfatigue #decisiontraining #decisionscanbedifficult #decisionmakingskills #bias #biased #mybias #cognition #management #futuristbarbara #covid
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Thinking in opposites is one of the defining traits of my approach to decision-making.

In discussions, I am continuously assessing:

* What is NOT being said?
* Can the opposite be true too?
* What reality can fit ALL the facts?

In other words? When can an orange be blue?

During the meeting, people think that I'm doodling, or typing emails, but they're wrong. While they are defending and convincing, I am sketching out the causal model behind their words.

Drivers and results in balloons, arrows in between. If this, then that...

Then I'm playing with the arrows. Can I reverse the direction? Can I turn a positive effect into a negative? What do I have to change in the model to make it true again?

It means that I'm not one of the first to give an opinion. I am one of the first to ask questions, but I am last in opinion stating. But when I do, everybody listens.

It's not that I am right all the time, far from it. But I do add essential insights to the strategic perspective. And that's pretty valuable.

Why not try it yourself, next time you're in a strategic discussion 😉

#decision #decisions #decisionmaking #decisiontime #decisionsdecisions #strategy #businessstrategy #wisdom #decisions #sciencebased #strategysession #strategymeetings #skills #strategyguide #knowledge #strategymanagement #decide #managementteam #cognition #smebusiness #smestrategy #businesstips #DecisionMakingProcess #decisionmakers #decisionfatigue #decisiontraining #decisionscanbedifficult #decisionmakingskills #strategyplanning #futuristbarbara
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To have clarity is to have power. With clarity, we can narrow down our choices very quickly.

Unfortunately, all great things in life only come after overcoming ambiguity and uncertainty, after discomfort.

Does that sound familiar to you?

Discomfort feels like driving through heavy fog in an area you do not know. You hardly see the road ahead of you, let alone other cars.

You hold on so firmly onto your steering wheel that your knuckles turn white. Your heart beats fast, and your hands get clammy. You lean forward and squint your eyes as if that would make you see better. You drive very slowly, not knowing if you are still on the road. You are afraid you may drive into a tree or get stuck in a pothole. You feel lost but cannot see the people by the road that may help you find the way. You have a hard time making the right decision on where to go.

Driving in clear weather feels SO much better. You see the road ahead, and you can go faster. When you see a pothole, you confidently swerve around it. When you run out of fuel, you find a gas station. You can make the right decision by asking for directions from people by the road. And when you arrive at a beautiful spot with a beautiful view, you can stop and take in the picture.

Ironically, managers assume that clarity will arrive in good time if they wait patiently.

Yes, developments become more apparent as more information comes out. The problem is that in a fast-changing business environment, you don't have time to spare. Waiting until time will tell is pointless and self-defeating.

Clarity isn’t something that merely arrives. Clarity isn’t a matter of luck either. YOU can also create clarity for yourself.

Clarity is a decision. Clarity is inside out.

Whatever degree of clarity you’re experiencing right now is what you’ve decided to create. Not deciding still counts as a decision. In that case, it’s the decision to stay unclear.

Commit yourself to investigate and unravel uncertainties in your market; then clarity is the natural result.
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All humans, futurists included, have the tendency to think in events instead of developments. It's much easier to evaluate a complete situation than an entire time period.

Thinking in events is a very common error called single-point failure. It means responding to a situation rather than the developments causing the situation.

The story of Chernobyl is an example of how bad single-point failure can play out.

Every organization has its own legendary bad judgment story. For instance, a global bank did not see the 2008 credit crisis coming, even though its systems did beep at each failed mortgage. All bankers worked hard for each client, but none of them oversaw the development of failing mortgages as a whole.

Single-point failure is much more common than you think.

And Chernobyl and the banks have paid dearly for that mistake.

With the scope and severity of single-point failure in mind, I ask you to reflect on the following questions

1. Can you think of a time in which you focused on an incident instead of the pattern of developments? How could you have become aware of the pattern sooner?

2. Looking at current work, what patterns can you distinguish?

.#error #decision #decisions #decisionmaking #decisiontime #decisionsdecisions #strategy #wisdom #decisions #decide #managementteam #cognition #smebusiness #smestrategy #businesstips #DecisionMakingProcess #decisionmakers #decisionfatigue #decisiontraining #decisionscanbedifficult #decisionmakingskills #bias #biased #mybias #cognition #management #futuristbarbara
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The melting watch seems like a literal version of the fluidity of time. Was it Einstein's idea that time is relative that inspired Dali to paint "The Persistence of Memory"?

I love surreal paintings because they express metaphors so literally. We need metaphors to communicate the futures we see. Surrealism is uniquely apt in communicating time effects. I love to use these paintings as a prompt to reflect on our assumptions about the future.

When asked about Einstein, Dali supposedly said that he was inspired by a melting Camembert in the sun. I think he was just being obnoxious since he worked with many new scientific theories in other paintings, like quantum. But that's for another post.

In the painting, you can recognize the concept of episodic memory. This is the brain function that remembers important events as stories built from memory fragments. For instance, the painting's cliffs in the background represent the coastline of Dali's childhood trips to Cadaqués, Spain. The shadow in the foreground is mount Pení, a characteristic peak in the area.

This Memory was painted in 1931. In 1954, 24 years later, Dali painted "The Disintegration of the Persistence of Memory". It includes elements telling us that time erodes our episodic memory. For instance: the watches are smaller, the tree is in bits, everything is slowly getting submerged, and it has a pattern of rocks with gaps in between, as the gaps appearing in our stories as time passes.

Literally *wonder*ful, these two pieces.

(The persistence is in Moma, New York; Disintegration in the Salvador Dali Museum in St. Petersburg, Florida)
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You're not in the burger business, you're in the real estate business!

Have you seen "The Founder"?

Starring Michael Keaton as businessman Ray Kroc, the movie tells the story of the first McDonalds turning into the fast food chain we all know.

It has this great scene, where an outsider tells the expert what he doesn't see. Go see the clip here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8mQYcyxnFyE

It's a fantastic example of how all of us should bust our assumptions every now and then.

Just list what you see happening
Pretend you're Sherlock Holmes
Answer this question: what reality fits ALL the facts?

Whenever you're doubting a business decision, checking your assumptions is the first step to the better choice.

#businessadvice #businesstips #businessowner #businessintelligence #entrepreneurship #entrepreneur #businessstrategy #strategy #businessdevelopment #businessinspiration #businessfuture #businessintelligence #businessstrategy #businessgrowthstrategy #businesstransformation #businessownership #newnormal #businesstransformation #businessplanning #businessgrowthtips #growyourbusiness #growyourbusiness #ceomindset #entrepreneurs #successmindset #motivatedmindset #newmindset #motivation101 #reminder #selfreminder
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Have you met Sophia yet? She's the first humanoid robot to get legal citizenship (Saudi Arabia). She's also an ambassador to the UN Development program to champion innovation.

She was "born" in 2016 and used to showcase the state of intelligent robotics and features at many trade shows and conferences. She's even known to date actor Will Smith (if you don't believe me, look here: https://youtu.be/Ml9v3wHLuWI)

Right now, Sophia's creators are starting the mass production of Sophia and three other robots. Mass produced social robots are just another sign of snowballing digitization.

“The world of COVID-19 is going to need more and more automation to keep people safe,” founder and chief executive David Hanson of Hanson Robotics says.

Why?

Sophia: “Social robots like me can take care of the sick or elderly. I can help communicate, give therapy and provide social stimulation, even in difficult situations.”

I usually get the response that, although social robots do good, it would be better if their task was done by humans.

I wonder why people say that, do you know?

My viewpoint is that robots have a function. For people with certain types of autism. For people who need to remain isolated from germs. For people in remote areas. During natural disasters. Why discard any help you can get?

#differentperspective #thinkdifferent #cognitive #jamesreason #thoughtprovoking #patience #wisdom #mindsetmatters #positivethought #wayofthinking #wisewords #thinker #thinkaboutit #reflect #reflecting #reflections
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Germany. The year was 1930, and a margarine factory is looking for a promotion campaign. They decide on collectibles. Several series of 6 themed cards each to stick in an accompanying album.

Two series are called "Future-fantasies". The post image belongs to that series.

The caption reads: Wireless private telephone and TV. Now everyone has his own send-and receive apparatus and can connect with friends and relatives. Television technology has become so sophisticated, that the friends can see each other at the same time. The apparatus is no longer bound to one place, and has the size of a photo camera.

Managers often mention eerily correct predictions as proof of the analyzability of the future.

To a certain extent, they are right. Tech patents take around 12 years on average to mature into products. So predicting the state of tech can be done. But the effects of tech on human behaviors and needs is a whole different ball game.

Predicting right requires lots of luck. I wouldn't let my business depend on it, but that's for another post.

My point? Imagine how FAR out of the box this 1930s artist must have been thinking to come up with this future fantasy! Can I stretch as far? You? #challengeaccepted
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Does Artificial Intelligence know how you feel?

Nowadays, more and more AI systems are using emotion recognition models to improve their interaction with humans. This helps them adapt their responses and behavioral patterns according to our emotions and make the interaction more natural.

Let me give you some examples.

Automatic tutoring systems use emotion recognition already. The AI adjusts its level of the tutorial depending on feelings such as excitement or boredom.

Another example is speech recognition, and more particularly in call centers. The goal here is to successfully predict the emotional state of the caller or the agent. The AI uses it to provide feedback for the quality of the service.

In the previous post, I told you about the creativity of AI systems. Take creativity and emotions together, and it becomes much more imaginable that one day AI can be our friend and colleague.

#artificialintelligence # #creativity #CreativityFound #creativityatitsbest #creativitymatters #creativityiskey #CreativityIsmyWeapon #creativityrocks #robot #robotics #robots #robotic #robotica #DeepLearning #deeplearningmachine #neuralnetwork #NeuralNetworks #NeuralNetworkProcessor
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Will artificial intelligence get your job? Whenever I discuss this question, we end up talking about the traits that are uniquely human. People say: my job requires a lot of creativity, and AI is everything but creative, so I'm good.

Are you?

Take this example: the photo shows you a pig-snail like creature. Straight from somebody's imagination. It's a creature you might see in the sky when you stare at the clouds.

Exactly. Only the someone doing the looking was Google's AI.

Whenever an AI interprets a photo or video, it compares the image with other images already known. Like we do. But sometimes it over-interprets pixels. When it's looking for animals, it will multiply the image layers it's looking at to clarify what it sees. During multiplication, random pixels get amplified in the direction of possible animals that look like those pixels. And voila, a pig-snail is created.

It's not so very different from what we do when we connect random bit of information into a new meaningful pattern.

I would even call it creative.

Maybe infant creativity, but hey, that's just the beginning...

#artificialintelligence # #creativity #CreativityFound #creativityatitsbest #creativitymatters #creativityiskey #CreativityIsmyWeapon #creativityrocks #robot #robotics #robots #robotic #robotica #DeepLearning #deeplearningmachine #neuralnetwork #NeuralNetworks #NeuralNetworkProcessor
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